Road to Super Bowl LI – Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Odds and PredictionsJames Johnson
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots will close Championship Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Between quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are nine Super Bowls played and six rings. Neither will be nervous. Both have been to some battles.
The Pats got here after beating the Houston Texans 34-16 last week. It was an awful game by their offense, and yet they won by 18 points. That should count for something.
The Steelers beat the Kansas City Chiefs 18-16 last week. Their offense didn’t score a touchdown despite moving the ball fairly well in Arrowhead Stadium.
Pittsburgh is 0-2 against New England in the playoffs since Tom Brady joined the league. Both losses were at home. Not playing with the pressure of the fans might help their cause.
This is the Road to Super Bowl LI – Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Odds and Predictions:
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) at New England Patriots (14-2)
- NFL Point Spread: New England Patriots -6
- Game Total: 50.5
- Game Time: Sunday, January 22| 6:40 PM ET
- Stadium Gillette Stadium, in Foxboro, MA
- TV: CBS
Why Bet the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover the NFL spread against the Patriots
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the one team the Patriots didn’t want to face. The Steelers can match the Pats point by point on the offensive side. They have also improved a lot of their defensive efforts.
The bookmaker software made the Patriots a 6-point favorite, but it looks a little high for my taste. Pittsburgh enters this meeting with nine wins in a row, including victories over the Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs.
The Steelers averaged 24.8 points per game during the regular season; the 11th best number in the NFL. But they ended the regular season averaging 26.4 points per game. They can win in two ways. Either scoring plenty of points like they did to Miami (30-12), or they can do it by closing the defense like they did in Kansas City (18-16).
Pittsburgh has two key players the Patriots won’t be able to stop. The strength of New England is to minimize the impact of the opponent’s best player. In this case, the Pats would have to pick their poise.
Either they focus on WR Antonio Brown who had 1284 yards and 12 touchdowns this season; or they go to Le’Veon Bell, who posted 170 rushing yards against Kansas City last week. Either way, the defense will have the odds against them. Both are multi-talented players with hunger for success.
Take a look at the NFL betting stats before challenging the bookie gambling experts. The Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS wins, 17-8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Conference Championships games. The only time they covered was against Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts in 2014. It was the infamous win on “Deflategate” night.
Why Bet the New England Patriots to cover the NFL spread against the Packers
The New England Patriots are the gold standard of the NFL. Whether you like them or not. The Patriots have reached 11 AFC Championship games under QB Tom Brady and six in a row including this one. Both are NFL records.
The Patriots have been money this season. They are 15-2 straight up and 14-3 against the spread including the playoffs. Even last week, where they didn’t play their best game of the season, New England won and covered a huge spread.
The Pats are so well-coached, even when they are bad, they are a good. Against the Steelers, they won’t find the same problems they had against Houston. Despite Pittsburgh is a better team than the Texans, Houston defense was phenomenal pressuring Tom Brady last week. The sports betting agents would have taken a beating if the Texans had a capable quarterback under center.
The Steelers can pressure the quarterback but not this way. Brady will have more time to make plays. And Pittsburgh knows exactly what that means. Tom Brady is 7-2 against the Steelers on his regular season career with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s also 2-0 against Pittsburgh in the playoffs; both times they met in the AFC Championship game.
New England has not trailed in a game since Week 12. They have gone 361 minutes, 56 seconds of game time without trailing; that’s more than six games.
The Patriots are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points and 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 home games. They have been absolutely money against the online bookie software.
How to bet the Game Total in the Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots NFL divisional playoffs Matchup:
Both the Patriots and the Steelers can engage in a defensive battle, but it’s hard to think this game will be UNDER the game total with these two quarterbacks. The pay per head bookies set the total to 50.5 points. The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh’s last 12 games when playing New England and in 4 of the Patriots’ last six games when playing at home against the Steelers.
This season, New England has seven of their ten games OVER the game total. The Over is 8-3 in their Patriots last 11 games as a home favorite, 5-1 in their last six playoff games, 5-0 in their last five playoff home games and 5-1 in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.
On the other side, Pittsburgh saw only six of their 18 games gone OVER the game total. The Under is 20-7 in the Steelers last 27 road games, 22-8-1 in Steelers last 31 vs. AFC, 5-1 in Steelers last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in Steelers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Odds and Predictions: While betting on the game total is a little tricky, the spread has a little more clarity. There isn’t a touchdown of difference between these two teams; especially with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line. Grab the Steelers +6.